Executive Summary
Climate change is expected to become a major migration driver. The first multi-country sub-national dataset on population distribution and climate offers new and distinctive evidence on the relationship between climate change and migration. This policy brief discusses the consequences of sub-national regional temperature and precipitation changes on migration in Africa regions. With the results and specific recommendation presented in this brief, national- and international level policymakers can, informed with evidence from climate models, better predict future migration patterns and work towards policies that anticipate and mitigate adverse consequences for affected populations.
Key Points
- The first multi-country sub-national dataset offers new and distinctive evidence on the relationship between regional temperature and precipitation change and migration from that region.
- Temperature increases are found to lead to increased migration, and, while smaller in effect, any change in precipitation – so both increases as well as decreases – is also found to lead to increased migration.
- Migration is greater from relatively unwealthy regions after temperature increases and precipitation changes.
- Agriculture seems to be the channel through which temperature and precipitation changes increase migration.
- Migration is greater from relatively dry regions than from relatively wet regions after precipitation decreases, while equal of size after precipitation increases.
- To prevent or mitigate adverse consequences for affected populations, national- or international policymakers should focus on policies for increased resilience in a changing climate, especially in unwealthy and agriculture-dependent regions.
- Mitigating climate change can also decrease migration, but would have a small effect in the short term.
- By allowing migrants to seek asylum in developed countries as climate refugees, migratory tensions within Africa could be lightened.